But it is also doubtful whether the ruling elites would allow such real political participation. ![]() In this environment, the creation of political parties, founded by popular figures and called upon to collaborate in introducing reforms, could be useful. At the same time, any attempt at reform may meet with mistrust from society at large, because people ultimately distrust the government and those in power. But there is no doubt that even purely economic reforms cannot be successfully introduced without political ones.Įconomic and social reforms can meet violent opposition from corrupt officials, who see their sources of profit threatened. Unemployment was also very high, particularly among the rural population. Before they broke out, inflation was fluctuating between 20 and 30 percent, without salaries and incomes increasing to the same extent. The immediate causes of the protests were economic and social. There are still the economic problems and the old models of government, where clan politics means power is divided among its own men. However, even all this has not been enough to stabilize the situation in the short term. This allowed Toqaev to distance himself from the “Nazarbayev clan.” Besides consolidating his own power, the president managed to gain wide support from the populace, because the old elite was considered corrupt and Másimov’s elimination was seen as a blow against corruption. It is true that people linked to Nazarbayev participated in the protests. Másimov, whose background and close relations with China made him a potential rival to Toqaev, was thus neutralized without provoking any outcry from the elite who supported him. Although there was no evidence that former President Nazarbayev was in any way personally involved in these protests, his former head of government and national security chief, Kárim Másimov, was arrested on charges of high treason. The main outcome of the January 2022 protests was President Toqaev’s consolidation of power. However, he not only succeeded in suppressing the protests, but also freed himself from the dominance of the former president and all the men Nazarbayev had placed in positions of power. Before the protests broke out, Toqaev was considered a weak leader, a puppet in the hands of Nazarbayev. The losers were the former president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, and his supporters. The winners from these protests were the incumbent president, Qasym-Jomart Toqaev, and all his followers. Muslim extremists also mostly come from this social group, and in this Kazakhstan does not differ from many other countries. The main group involved, however, were the so-called mambets, young people from rural backgrounds who have moved to the big cities in search of better living conditions. It is still not yet clear which of the competing elites was the first to try to exploit them Islamist groups also tried to become involved. ![]() The protests broke out spontaneously, and then, as is almost always the case in such situations, there were several attempts to exploit them for political ends. However, that was only the trigger amidst general discontent. The immediate reason was the increase, after the government removed price controls, in the price of petroleum, which is very important in Kazakhstan as fuel for transport. Initially, the demands were purely economic. Protests erupted on January 2 in the oil- and gas-producing regions, which should be rich but are in fact among the poorest in the country. But one thing seems clear: if the reforms fail, the country will certainly not be able to return to peace. The fact that Kazakhstan’s leadership called a referendum for June 2022 can be interpreted either way. There are, however, big differences in the way the ruling elites react to protests, ranging from attempts to consolidate power through repression to introducing some reforms, even if these can sometimes be a fig leaf masking a tight grip on power. Kazakhstan is not an exception, just one more example. The tragic events of January 2022 once again revealed how the republics that emerged from the collapse of the USSR are still a long way from stability.
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